THE DAILY LISTENING POST

LAME-DUCK SESSION LIKELY TO PUNT TO NEXT CONGRESS
After a shift of power, there's little political will to finish incomplete agenda issues this session.
By Gail Russell Chaddock Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

WASHINGTON – The "lame-duck" Congress opening this week may fit its billing.

There's a vast unfinished agenda in the 109th Congress, including most of the fiscal 2007 spending bills, immigration reform, ethics rules for lawmakers, an offshore drilling bill, a fix for President Bush's warrantless wiretapping program, and an omnibus trade and tax package.

But after an election that shifted control of the House and Senate to Democrats, there's little political will to complete it this session.
"There are a lot of factors in play, and the difficulties haven't gone anywhere since the election," says Don Stewart, a spokesman for incoming Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell. "Both sides are talking a lot, but there hasn't been agreement yet. People are just going to keep talking until someone throws up their hands."

Congress is likely to punt on approving at least nine of the 12 spending bills for the fiscal year that began on Oct. 1.

All that means heavy lifting for Democrats in the 110th Congress, who will have to deal with old spending bills even as they are rolling out a signature agenda for the first 100 legislative days.

While expectations are fading for spending bills, the Senate is on track to confirm former CIA director Robert Gates as Defense secretary. The Senate Armed Services Committee opens hearings on the nomination Tuesday, which are expected to be vigorous but not deeply divisive.

"We have to have someone who will speak truth to power and not just tell a president what he wants to hear," said Sen. Carl Levin (D) of Michigan, the committee's incoming chairman, on NBC's "Meet the Press" Sunday. "It's likely that he's confirmed, but it's very important that there be a fair process."

Of the dozen post election sessions Congress has held since World War II, several have had historical significance. In 1954, the Senate convened to censure Sen. Joseph McCarthy (R) of Wisconsin for his "lynch party"-style hearings on the dangers of communism. In 1974, Congress met to complete legislation delayed by the Watergate investigation. In 1998, the House met for two days to impeach President Clinton.

Since then, Congress has been driven into overtime after each election because of unfinished spending bills. Those lame-duck sessions became a free-for-all for adding earmarks to massive omnibus spending bills or, when that failed, postponing decisions until the next Congress.
Of the two strategies, say budget watchdog groups, punting to the next Congress may be preferable. "It will save a lot of money," says Tom Schatz, president of Citizens Against Government Waste. "For now, taxpayers have a little bit of a Christmas present, because a continuing resolution spends the lower amount of last year's spending bill."

At press time both the House and Senate aimed to pass a continuing resolution for spending bills through Feb. 15, 2007.

The deadlock is similar to what happened in the waning hours of the 107th Congress, after Democrats lost control of the Senate. After failing to agree on spending, Congress opted to complete work on 11 unfinished appropriations bills in the new Congress. In 2002 and 2004, Congress used lame-duck sessions to negotiate vast omnibus spending bills, along with member "pork" projects to sweeten the deal.

Today, in the Senate, the main obstacle is a determined minority of conservatives who want assurances that no pork projects will be added to appropriations bills.

"We're trying to shut down the favor factory, at least until Christmas," says John Hart, a spokesman for Sen. Tom Coburn (R) of Oklahoma, who for the first time challenged individual earmarks, such as the proposed "bridge to nowhere" in Alaska, on the floor of the Senate in the 109th Congress. "We'll take a short-term [resolution] if it means not passing 10,000 earmarks in the last stages of the session."

Senate conservatives are also blocking a conference with the House over the $136 billion Military Quality of Life and Veterans Affairs spending bill, which cleared the Senate unanimously last month, in a bid to curb earmarks. Other bills could break through the gridlock. On Friday, House Republicans agreed to allow a vote on a Senate compromise bill that would open new areas for oil and natural-gas development in the Gulf Coast, but maintain a ban on coastal drilling elsewhere. The bill also increases federal royalty shares for Gulf states from less than 2 percent to 37.5 percent. The more expansive House version of the bill would open drilling in any coastal area, unless states object.

Another compromise deal that could move this week is a package of popular tax extenders, including expiring state sales-tax deductions, college-tuition deductions, and the research-and-development tax credits that are a top priority of US business groups. This bill could be paired with expiring trade preferences for developing countries, including a measure that would allow Haiti to import textiles from countries such as China and sell them duty-free in the United States - a move strongly opposed by US textile manufacturers.

Meanwhile, lawmakers are engaged in the ups and downs of the coming power shift. Halls of congressional office buildings look like an army on the move. Defeated lawmakers, including several key committee chairmen, were due to be out of their offices by last Friday
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Congress's pragmatic newcomers 11/24/06
Congress's pragmatic newcomers

Capitol Hill freshmen promise practicality over party loyalty.
By Gail Russell Chaddock Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
WASHINGTON – From time to time, a freshman class in Congress leaves its mark on Capitol Hill. There were the reform-minded Watergate babies of 1974. More recently came the GOP insurgent "citizen legislators" of '94.
Now, the class of '06, too, has been elected on a surge of voter discontent, and although the new class isn't as big as those two, it has the potential to leave its own stamp.

If interviews with incoming freshmen are any indication, that mark will be pragmatism first, even at the expense of party loyalty, and a get-things-done sensibility.

This pragmatic tone is good news for moderates in both parties, who have been marginalized in the past few Congresses. Rising again is the Blue Dog Coalition, which moderate Democrats formed in 1994 to steer their party back to an agenda of fiscal restraint and national security after they lost control of the House of Representatives. "It's the largest freshman class the Blue Dogs ever had," says Eric Wortman, a spokesman for the coalition.
The group is also likely to wield more power in the new Congress. "With 44 votes, we'll have a voice in what comes to the floor and, if not, in what passes," says Rep. Mike Ross (D) of Arkansas, communications director for the Blue Dog Coalition and a third-term lawmaker.

"We're going to do our part to govern from the middle. The message [voters] sent is that they want us to put an end to partisan bickering and get something done for the American people," he adds. "The freshmen seem to fit in very well.... They get the issues."

Changing winds in Washington
With the Democratic edge in both the House and Senate still relatively small, the new class is set to play a pivotal role on issues ranging from fiscal discipline to ending the war in Iraq.

A former Republican, Nancy Boyda (D) of Kansas campaigned on the idea that the GOP had lost touch with mainstream America, especially on the war in Iraq. Along with Ms. Boyda, a former chemist, the new class contains a former admiral, three musicians, an ex-Washington Redskins quarterback, and a sheriff. More than half of the House freshmen are lawyers, no surprise. More than 4 in 10 have no previous experience as legislators - an unusually high percentage in an era when many lawmakers are recruited from state legislatures.

"Our class is very idealistic," says Boyda, who defeated Olympic legend and five-term GOP Rep. Jim Ryun. "There are a number of people who aren't experienced in politics and don't seem to fit into a political mold. But if we don't get the job done, we'll be kicked out of office."

In another sign that the mood is shifting on Capitol Hill, Democrats and Republicans sat together for the first two days of freshman orientation for the first time in years, which many newcomers welcomed.

"I didn't run on the left or on the right. I ran to solve problems," says Representative-elect Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania, after orientation.
"We were told [by voters] to fix the process. I was pleased to find others who think like me," adds Mr. Sestak, a retired vice admiral and former adviser to President Clinton.

Still, with 435 House members and the rules stacked to the advantage of party leadership, it's the rare freshman class that can change the tenor of an institution.

Take the Watergate babies, for example. Elected after President Nixon's resignation in 1974, 75 freshman Democrats campaigned to clean up the culture of Washington. They launched the most sweeping internal reforms in a generation, decentralized power, ousted three longtime committee chairmen, multiplied the number of committees and the size of committee staff, and opened the House to more public scrutiny.

The 73 Republicans in the class of '94 swept the GOP back into power in the House for the first time in 42 years on a pledge to end corruption in the Congress and reduce the size of government. Reversing the reforms of the Watergate babies, they rerouted power from committees to the speaker. But their refusal to compromise with the more moderate Senate sank much of their reform agenda.

Many prominent veterans of the '94 GOP class were defeated Nov. 7, including Reps. J. D. Hayworth of Arizona, John Hostettler of Indiana, Gil Gutknecht of Minnesota, Charles Bass of New Hampshire, and Sue Kelly of New York.

America's first Madam Speaker 11/09/06

America's first Madam Speaker
Nancy Pelosi plans to drive a '100-hour' agenda through the House.
By Gail Russell Chaddock Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
WASHINGTON – Vilified in Republican campaigns across the nation as a "San Francisco liberal," Nancy Pelosi - the speaker presumptive of the 110th Congress - actually lives politics closer to her roots in the precincts and wards of Baltimore's Democratic Party machine. That's not to say she's a backslapping, cigar-champing pol. The totems in Representative Pelosi's office are white Casablanca lilies and San Francisco's Ghirardelli chocolates. Like many Democrats of her generation, she keeps a photograph of herself - then, a credible stand-in for Audrey Hepburn - with President Kennedy on a table in her office.

But what helped Pelosi become the first female speaker - and second in line to the presidency - is old-school pragmatism: a practical sense of how to build power and no qualms about using it.

"The campaign is over. Democrats are ready to lead," she told cheering supporters in Washington on Tuesday. A prodigious fundraiser with a family fortune, Pelosi openly split with the House's former Democratic leader, Richard Gephardt of Missouri, over the 2002 vote to authorize the use of force in Iraq, which she opposed. When Mr. Gephardt stepped down after Democratic setbacks in that year's midterm election, Pelosi quickly consolidated support to replace him.

She insists that she would not hesitate to defend the nation, if needed. A woman in power is like "a lioness in the jungle," she said at a Monitor breakfast in March. "You know you're dead if you go near the cubs.... If you pose a real threat to the people of our country, you can count on hearing from us very soon," she added.

As minority leader in the House, Pelosi united a diverse and fractious Democratic caucus on more key votes than any leader in the past half century, according to a survey by Congressional Quarterly. She did it by setting clear lines and holding party members to them on the argument that a united caucus had a better shot at winning back the House than did a divided one.

But behind the unity is fear - mostly that she will strip projects or plum assignments from Democrats seen as working too conspicuously with Republican lawmakers. Critics also charge that Pelosi has let partisanship interfere with legitimate oversight activities of Congress. Last September, when a House committee held a hearing on the government response to hurricane Katrina, she dubbed it a "a partisan whitewash" and urged Democrats not to attend. Two Gulf region Democrats went anyway, and the hearing turned out to be a grilling of Bush administration officials.
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich minced no words in stating his view of a Pelosi-led House. It would be, he said in August, a "disaster" for the country.

A bigger tent to manage, As speaker, Pelosi will preside over a very diverse majority - broadened by the influx of red-state Democrats, many of them fiscal conservatives, that gave House Democrats their victory. Most newcomers are expected to line up with the moderate, "blue dog" wing of the caucus. With an expected margin about 30 votes, she will need all her pragmatic smarts to hold the new Democratic majority together.
"Pelosi has been able to maintain unity among Democrats, keep legislators on the same page and on message, count votes effectively, and cause problems for House Republicans. She clearly inherited her father's political skills," says Julian Zelizer, a congressional historian at Boston University, referring to former Baltimore mayor and US Rep. Thomas D'Alesandro. "Now, she will have no choice but to focus on keeping the Democratic machine intact, pushing her party to focus on politically effective issues and finding policies that will attract some Republican support."
In her first 100 legislative hours at the helm, Pelosi says, she aims to "drain the swamp" by passing a new rules package, including pay-as-you-go budgeting; raise the minimum wage; pass all the independent 9/11 commission recommendations; cut the interest rate on student loans by half; negotiate for lower drug prices in the Medicare prescription-drug program; end subsidies for Big Oil; and allow federal support of embryonic stem-cell research.

All these items have at least some support across the aisle but involve bypassing the usual committee-hearing process to gain quick votes on the floor. It's an agenda that will test Pelosi's ability to hold her own majority while winning enough GOP support to get bills to the president's desk.

Diversity counts
While current Speaker Dennis Hastert characterizes his role as that of a coach, Pelosi often describes herself as presiding over a room in her "mother-of-five voice." (In fact, she is a mother of five and awaits the arrival of her sixth grandchild.) And there's no word more important in the Pelosi lexicon than "diversity."

Bypassing more senior colleagues, Pelosi appointed Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D) of Ohio to be the first African-American woman to serve on the Ways and Means Committee, Rep. Hilda Solis (D) of California to be the first Latina on the Energy and Commerce Committee, and Rep. Linda Sanchez (D) of California to be the first Latina to serve on the Judiciary Committee.

"She understands the importance of diversity ... of having all groups represented in the decisionmaking process," says Rep. G.K. Butterfield of North Carolina, who serves on the steering committee for the Democratic caucus. In the next Congress, that committee will consider new rules for committee assignments within the caucus, including whether to downgrade the importance of seniority. "While seniority is important, other factors are as important in a committee assignment or chairmanship, such as geography, race, and political philosophy," he adds. In a move that has already generated controversy, Pelosi has signaled that she is unlikely to name Rep. Jane Harman of California, the ranking Democrat on the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, to the chairmanship, in favor of Rep. Alcee Hastings of Florida, next in line and a member of the Congressional Black Caucus. Respected in the intelligence community, Representative Harman often worked with the committee's GOP chairman, Rep. Peter Hoekstra of Michigan, even as Pelosi urged Democrats to hold ranks.

Caucus moderates are urging Pelosi to embrace the new freshman moderates. Her "challenge is to wrap her arms around all aspects of the different philosophies that exist in this big Democratic tent , which is much larger as a result of this election," says Rep. Allen Boyd of Florida, a moderate Democrat. "I've tried to encourage ... Pelosi to put them in the room with her when she makes ... decisions."

Meanwhile, feminist activists hailed the historic moment of the first woman speaker ever. "This is the highest political leadership post ever held by a woman and puts Pelosi in the driver's seat as we begin to fulfill the will of the electorate and reshape the national agenda," says Ellen Malcolm, president of Emily's List, a group that supports abortion-rights candidates.

"Seeing this smart, tough, effective woman leading the Congress will help pave the way for the future of all women in politics," she added in a statement.

Power shift in Washington
Power shift in Washington
A democratic Congress bodes ill for some – but not all – of Bush's agenda.
By Linda Feldmann and Peter Grier Staff writers of The Christian Science Monitor

WASHINGTON – The tectonic plates of Washington power have shifted, presenting both President Bush and the new Democratic majority in Congress with an opportunity to work together and leave behind the politics of confrontation.

The day after the historic midterm elections of 2006 - in which the Democrats won considerably more than the 15-seat net gain needed to take over the House of Representatives and were heading toward a possible majority in the Senate - leaders from both parties pledged to work together and avoid the intense partisanship of recent years.

"The message was clear: The American people want their leaders in Washington to set aside partisan differences, conduct ourselves in an ethical manner, and work together to address the challenges facing our nation," Mr. Bush said Wednesday in a press conference.
The reality, analysts say, is that the next two years are likely to offer a blend of confrontation and common ground. The Democrats, after 12 years in congressional opposition, don't want their hard-fought majority to vanish in the next election. The incentive for Bush, entering the final two years of his presidency, is to leave his party in a position to compete effectively in 2008. He can take a page from his earlier days as governor of Texas, when he gained a reputation for working well with Democrats.
"Early indications are that he's doing what he's done before and can do again, if he can get over his hurt and his pique, which it sounds like he already has, or at least he's working on it," says Bruce Buchanan, a political scientist at the University of Texas, Austin. "That is, this is not the time to get confrontational and dig in his heels."

The morning after, Bush was on the phone, congratulating the Democratic leadership of Congress, and inviting the presumptive next speaker of the House, Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California, over for lunch.
From the Democrats' end, Ms. Pelosi already has appeared to clamp down on talk of impeaching the president by some of the more vocal liberals in the House. Still, life under the Democrats is expected to include hearings and inquiries into aspects of the Iraq war and the larger war on terror. The challenge will be for the Democrats not to appear on a witch hunt. Impeachment may be a hush, hush word for the moment in the Halls Of Congress, but flaming organizational and internet assaults are well underway for a 2007 assault.

By Wednesday morning, the contours of the new House and Senate were becoming clear, but not definitive. At press time, the Democrats had made a net gain of 27 House seats and five Senate seats. One Senate race remained too close to call - but the Republican incumbent, George Allen of Virginia, was slightly behind. If the challenger wins, Democrats will control a majority in the Senate.

In the wave, some longtime Republican members were defeated, including Reps. Nancy Johnson of Connecticut, Clay Shaw of Florida, and Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania. In the Senate, incumbent Republicans Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, and Mike DeWine all lost.

For the foot soldiers of both parties, who worked overtime to turn out their voters, such loyalty breeds demands on leaders - and it is among those base constituencies that common ground could be most elusive. For Bush, extending the tax cuts that he says have boosted the US economy will be an important goal. Democrats have pledged to raise the minimum wage as one of their first acts in the majority, presenting Bush with the choice of going along with or vetoing legislation that the public supports.

Some elements of Bush's agenda, such as his plan to partially privatize Social Security, now appear dead while others, such as his plan for comprehensive immigration reform - enhanced enforcement twinned with a guest-worker program - may gain new life.
Generally, voters were in a sour mood. Six in 10 said the nation was on the wrong track, according to exit polls conducted by the Associated Press and other news organizations. Scandals played a role. More than half of voters said they were dissatisfied with the way the GOP House leadership handled the matter of Rep. Mark Foley (R) of Florida, who has been accused of improper behavior toward teenage House pages.

But if one issue was the most important in the vote, it was Iraq. Six in 10 voters said they disapproved of the war. In the end, "the election became a referendum on the war," says Michael McDonald, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and assistant professor of government and politics at George Mason University.

Whether Bush will read the election results as a mandate to change course in Iraq remains to be seen. If he chooses, he could take cover under the forthcoming recommendations of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, a government-sponsored commission. His resistance, ignorance of, or outright repudiation of the committee’s work will play into the hands of Impeachment advocates.

Considering both the Iraq war and the halting federal response to hurricane Katrina, voters have become skeptical of the ability of the White House to run important matters of US policy, says George C. Edwards III, a scholar of the presidency at Texas A&M University. "They're not confident in the competence of Republicans to govern. That may, or may not, be fair," he says.

Many newly elected Democratic representatives come from swing districts, and are likely to be more moderate than liberals from safe Democratic seats. Congressional Republicans, for their part, may be dissatisfied with their current leaders, such as Speaker Dennis Hastert (R) of Illinois, and may tack away from a president they increasingly see as a lame duck.
Meanwhile, House Democrats will find it hard to push their own legislative agenda over Republican Senate filibusters and a potential White House veto.

His confirmation in doubt, John Bolton exits the UN
The hard-line US ambassador to the UN said Monday that he will step down within weeks.

By Peter Grier Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
WASHINGTON – US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton isn't known for being diplomatic.
Last week, when the UN Human Rights Council declined to criticize the Sudanese government's complicity in Darfur atrocities, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan issued a carefully worded critical statement. Mr. Bolton issued a thunderbolt.

The action was "another example of the poor performance of the Human Rights Council, another reason why those who advocated going ahead with this council will have a heavy burden to bear," said Bolton.
Whether these words were deserved or not, they were reflective of a style which in the end undid his UN posting. With his path to Senate confirmation appearing blocked, Bolton announced Monday that he will step down when his temporary appointment expires within weeks.
President Bush said he accepted Bolton's decision with deep regret. "He served his country with extraordinary dedication and skill, assembling coalitions that addressed some of the most consequential issues facing the international community," Mr. Bush said in a statement. Critics claimed that Bolton's brusqueness made him counterproductive. At the UN, he alienated US allies, both real and potential, according to his critics. Many Senate Democrats - and a few Republicans - charged that his hard-line ideology and penchant for confrontation was at odds with the UN's multilateral nature.

Bolton's defenders insist that he has done well at the UN headquarters in New York, pushing through tough Security Council resolutions on North Korea's nuclear activities, building consensus among allies on the need for Iran to suspend its enrichment of uranium, and pressing for peace in Darfur.

"US participation at the United Nations is not about winning popularity contests or engaging in feel-good, back-slapping exercises. It is about steadfast leadership and the advancement of clear principles and ideals," writes Heritage Foundation foreign policy expert Nile Gardiner in an examination of Bolton's record. As recently as November the administration appeared intent on fighting to keep Bolton in his current position. The incoming chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Sen. Joe Biden (D) of Delaware recently said he saw "no point" in bringing Bolton's nomination before the panel, given the opposition in the chamber to confirming him in the post.

Administration officials were searching for ways to possibly circumvent the Senate, perhaps by giving him a title other than ambassador or by again giving him a temporary, recess appointment. In the end, Bolton may have decided to simply take himself out of the running. His letter of resignation to Bush, dated Dec. 1, was brief and to the point. "I have concluded that my service in your [administration] should end when the current recess appointment expires," Bolton wrote.

Thermometer: Kerry ice cold, Giuliani red hot
POSTED: 11:31 a.m. EST, November 28, 2006
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -- Democratic Sen. John Kerry, considering a second bid for the U.S. presidency, finished dead last in a poll on the likability of 20 top American political figures.

Among those placed ahead of Kerry were about a dozen potential 2008 White House rivals, including Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

"This is bad, bad news for Kerry," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in Hamden, Connecticut, which conducted the survey, the results of which were released Monday.
"Americans know who he is, and have pretty much decided they don't like him," said Brown. He noted the poll found that 95 percent of respondents said they had heard enough about Kerry, who lost the 2004 White House race to President Bush, to rate the Massachusetts Democrat.
The poll of 1,623 registered voters was conducted after the November 7 national elections, which saw Democrats win back control of Congress from Republicans.

David Wade, a Kerry spokesman, dismissed the value of such polls and noted the senator's comeback to capture his party's 2004 presidential nomination.

"A lot of pundits and prognosticators have lost a lot of dough pronouncing John Kerry politically dead," Wade said. During this year's congressional campaign, Kerry sought to help fellow Democrats but drew bipartisan fire for what he called "a botched joke" about Bush and the Iraq war. (Full story) Yet even before Kerry's attempt at humor, he did not fare well in similar Quinnipiac polls this year.

'Feeling thermometer'
The survey asked respondents to rate 20 political figures on a "feeling thermometer." The warmer or more favorable they felt toward a person the higher score they gave them on a scale of zero to 100. Respondents were given the option of saying they did not know enough about the figure to offer a rating.

In the current poll, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a Republican, ranked first with a mean score of 64.2, followed by Democratic Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, 58.8, and McCain, 57.7. All three are potential presidential candidates. (Watch whether Obama is talk or action )
Bush finished 15th with 43.8, behind former Vice President Al Gore, who was 14th with 44.9.

Kerry was last with a rating of 39.6. In three earlier polls this year, he never scored above 46.3.

In the new likability survey, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice ranked fourth with 56.1, followed by former Democratic President Bill Clinton, 55.8, and Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, who won re-election this month as an independent after losing the Democratic primary, 52.7.

New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a Republican, was seventh at 51.1, followed by two other potential presidential contenders, former Democratic Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, 49.9, and Hillary Clinton, 49.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, another possible White House contender, ranked 10th, at 47.7.

Among other possible presidential contenders were: Democratic Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, with a score of 47; Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican, 45.9; Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, 43.3; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a Republican, 42, and outgoing Senate Republican Leader Bill Frist, 41.5.

POLL RESULTS
1) Rudolph Giuliani 64.2
2) Sen. Barack Obama 58.8
3) Sen. John McCain 57.7
4) Condoleezza Rice 56.1
5) Bill Clinton 55.8
6) Sen. Joseph Lieberman 52.7
7) Mayor Michael Bloomberg 51.1
8) John Edwards 49.9
9) Sen. Hillary Clinton 49
10) Gov. Bill Richardson 47.7
11) Sen. Joseph Biden 47
12) Rep. Nancy Pelosi 46.9
13) Gov. Mitt Romney 45.9
14) Al Gore 44.9
15) President George Bush 43.8
16) Sen. Evan Bayh 43.3
17) Newt Gingrich 42
18) Sen. Bill Frist 41.5
19) Sen. Harry Reid 41.2
20) Sen. John Kerry 39.6
Source: Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
Copyright 2006 Reuters
Hillary Clinton discussing presidential bid


POSTED: 11:42 a.m. EST, December 4, 2006

Story Highlights
• It's "pretty clear" former first lady will seek nomination, source says• Clinton interviewing candidates for campaign staff, source says • Clinton holds talks with New York Gov.-elect Spitzer

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is holding discussions about and interviewing potential campaign staff for a White House bid in 2008, sources say. Clinton, a Democratic senator for New York and former first lady, was re-elected to a six-year term in the Senate in a landslide last month. "She said before the election that after the election she would be considering a presidential run," said Howard Wolfson, a senior Clinton adviser. "Part of that process is seeking the advice and counsel of her colleagues in New York."

Wolfson said the senator has been holding private conversations with New York Democrats concerning a White House bid. Another source close to Clinton told CNN she has begun interviewing potential campaign staff.
One New York Democrat, who asked to not be named, said he was recently called by a senior Clinton team member. While it was not flatly said that Clinton had decided to run for president, "it was pretty clear," the source said. On Sunday, Clinton met New York's governor-elect, Eliot Spitzer, The Associated Press reported.

"We just had a great, wide-ranging meeting on so many issues that affect the city, the state and the country," AP quoted Clinton as saying as she left the meeting at Spitzer's home in Manhattan.

New York Sen. Charles Schumer, Clinton's Democratic colleague, told AP he would be meeting with Clinton in the next week. "She wants to sit down and talk next week, which we're going to do. It could be about legislation. I have no idea what it's about, and until we sit down and talk that's all I'm going to say about it," AP quoted Schumer as saying. "I think she'd make a very good president but let's wait and see. Everyone's sort of jumping the gun."

A CNN poll taken two weeks ago showed the New York senator favored by 33 percent of people asked who they were "most likely to support for the Democratic nomination for president in the year 2008."

Clinton was ranked first among 10 potential Democratic candidates. Second place for "likely" support was a statistical tie among Illinois Sen. Barack Obama (15 percent); former Vice President Al Gore (14 percent), who ran for president in 2000; and John Edwards (14 percent), John Kerry's running mate in 2004.

Last week, Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack announced he would seek the Democratic nomination. Indiana Democrat Sen. Evan Bayh announced Sunday he is considering running for the White House.

CNN's Mark Preston, Scott Spoerry and Candy Crowley contributed to this report.
Copyright 2006 CNN. All rights reserved.This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Associated Press contributed to this report.

Bush meets with Shiite leader amid calls for change
POSTED: 4:19 p.m. EST, December 4, 2006

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush told an Iraqi power broker Monday that the United States was not satisfied with the progress of efforts to stop the sharp escalation of violence in Iraq.

Bush met at the White House with Abdul Aziz Hakim, the Shiite leader of the largest bloc in Iraq's parliament. Hakim said that he "vehemently" opposes any regional or international effort to solve Iraq's problems that goes around the unity government in Baghdad. (Watch how the Shiite leader's warmth toward Washington may be politically driven )
"Iraq should be in a position to solve Iraq's problems," Hakim said.
The president said he spoke with Hakim for more than an hour and said they had a "very constructive conversation."

"I assured him that the U.S. supports his work and the work of the prime minister to unify the country," Bush said, referring to Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

"Part of unifying Iraq is for the elected leaders and society leaders to reject the extremists that are trying to stop the advance of this young democracy," Bush said. "We talked about the need to give the government Iraq more capability as soon as possible so the elected government of Iraq can do that which the Iraqi people want to secure their country from extremists and murderers," Bush said. "I told his eminence that I was proud of the courage of the Iraqi people. I told him that we're not satisfied with the pace of progress in Iraq. And that we want to continue to work with the sovereign government of Iraq."

Hakim, after what he called a "very clear" meeting earlier with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, told reporters in Arabic that "we have asked for the American forces to stay in Iraq" to enable Iraqi security to deal with terrorists. (Watch Bush urge Hakim and other Iraqi leaders to "reject the extremists" )

Monday's developments came amid an atmosphere of rising expectations about a new U.S. policy in Iraq and an acknowledgment by Bush's national security adviser that Bush accepts that a new approach is warranted.
National security adviser Stephen Hadley said Sunday that while Bush recognizes something different needs to be done, the president won't use the recommendations due this week from the Iraq Study Group as political cover for bringing troops home.

"We have not failed in Iraq," Hadley said as he made the talk show rounds Sunday. "We will fail in Iraq if we pull out our troops before we're in a position to help the Iraqis succeed." He added: "The president understands that we need to have a way forward in Iraq that is more successful."

Rumsfeld memo
But, with the leak of another insider's secret memo, the second in a week, the administration found itself on the defensive. The latest showed that Donald H. Rumsfeld called for a "major adjustment" in U.S. tactics on November 6 -- the day before an election that cost Republicans the Congress and Rumsfeld his job as defense secretary. (Watch a senator call the timing of Rumsfeld's memo "perplexing" )

Hadley played down the memo as a laundry list of ideas rather than a call for a new course of action. He said that Bush -- just before a pivotal election -- was not portraying a different sense of the war to the public than his own defense secretary was giving him in private. The president "has said publicly what Rumsfeld said, that things are not proceeding well enough or fast enough in Iraq," Hadley said.

Democrats did not buy that.

"The Rumsfeld memo makes it quite clear that one of the greatest concerns is the political fallout from changing course here in the United States," said Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Delaware, the incoming chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "The bottom line is there is no one, including the former secretary, who thought the policy the president continues to pursue makes any sense."

Rep. John Murtha, D-Pennsylvania, said the Rumsfeld memo was an example of how the administration has been "mischaracterizing and misstating this war." He said the Iraq conflict had devolved into a civil war.
"There's two factions fighting for supremacy inside Iraq and our troops are caught in between," Murtha said on NBC's "Today" show. As incoming chairman of the House Defense Appropriations subcommittee, Murtha said he would put pressure on the administration to redeploy U.S. troops there. (Watch how the memo represents an about-face on Rumsfeld's stance on Iraq )

Bush has nominated Robert Gates to replace Rumsfeld. His confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee is on Tuesday.
As pressure builds for a new strategy, the report from the Iraq Study Group increasingly is viewed as perhaps clearing the way for a U.S. exit strategy in Iraq. Hadley, though, said the review will be just one factor the White House considers.

After a meeting last week in Jordan, Bush expressed confidence that al-Maliki and his government can lead the country toward peace with support from the United States. Yet Hadley found himself defending his own memo that called that very point into question.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press.
Biden blasts Mexico's 'corrupt system' for immigration, drug problems

POSTED: 9:56 a.m. EST, November 28, 2006
:
COLUMBIA, South Carolina (AP) -- Sen. Joe Biden, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's incoming chairman, wants to get tough with Mexico, calling it an "erstwhile democracy" with a "corrupt system" responsible for illegal immigration and drug problems in the U.S.
Biden, D-Delaware, was in Columbia on Monday in his first postelection trip to this first-in-the-South presidential primary state as he continues to line up support for his presidential bid.

During a question-and-answer session before more than 230 Columbia Rotary Club members, Biden was asked about immigration problems.
Biden, who favors tightening the U.S.-Mexico border with fences, said immigration is driven by money in low-wage Mexico.

"Mexico is a country that is an erstwhile democracy where they have the greatest disparity of wealth," Biden said. "It is one of the wealthiest countries in the hemisphere and because of a corrupt system that exists in Mexico, there is the 1 percent of the population at the top, a very small middle class and the rest is abject poverty."

Unless the political dynamics change in Mexico and U.S. employers who hire illegal immigrants are punished, illegal immigration won't stop. "All the rest is window dressing," he said. An even bigger problem are illegal drugs "coming up through corrupt Mexico," he said. "People are driving across that border with tons, tons -- hear me -- tons of everything from byproducts for methamphetamines, to cocaine, to heroine." Covering a variety of topics, Biden kept most of the crowd in their seats for an hour -- twice as long as scheduled.

"I warn all of you, all of you making more than a million bucks -- I hope you all are -- I'm taking away your tax cut," Biden said. "I'm not joking."
The extra revenue would generate $75 billion a year and pay for a backlog in national security and local law enforcement programs, Biden said.
Biden's appeal for bipartisanship captured Bruce Rippeteau, a former Rotary president who says he's in the Genghis Khan wing of the Republican Party.

He "was saying some important things in a nonpolitical way," Rippeteau said. "I want to compliment him about what he didn't say," Wilson said. "He never one time mentioned weapons of mass destruction."
Biden will lead the Foreign Relations panel because Republicans around the nation lost seats in the November 7 elections. That tide didn't reach Republican-dominated South Carolina, where the GOP maintained its four U.S. House seats and Democrats kept their two.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press
Senator-elect, Bush have unfriendly chat on Iraq
POSTED: 9:59 p.m. EST, November 29, 2006

RICHMOND, Virginia (AP) -- Democratic Sen.-elect Jim Webb avoided the receiving line during a recent White House reception for new members of Congress and had a chilly exchange with President Bush over the Iraq war and his Marine son.

"How's your boy?" Webb, in an interview Wednesday, recalled Bush asking during the reception two weeks ago.

"I told him I'd like to get them out of Iraq," Webb said. (Watch how Webb describes the exchange )

"That's not what I asked. How's your boy?" the president replied, according to Webb.

At that point, Webb said, Bush got a response similar to what reporters and others who had asked Webb about Lance Cpl. Jimmy Webb, 24, have received since the young man left for Iraq around Labor Day: "I told him that was between my boy and me."

Webb, a leading critic of the Iraq war, said that he had avoided the receiving line and photo op with Bush, but that the president found him.
The White House had no comment on the reception. But it did not dispute an account of the exchange in Wednesday's Washington Post.
Webb, a Marine veteran of the Vietnam War and Navy secretary under President Reagan, defeated Virginia Republican Sen. George Allen by 9,329 votes out of 2.37 million cast, giving the Democrats control of both houses of Congress for the first time since 1994.

Webb left the GOP, in part over the Iraq war. He warned against the invasion, and criticized Bush over Iraq during the Senate campaign.
He said he meant no disrespect to the presidency during the reception, but "I've always made a distinction about not speaking personally about my son."

In interviews during the campaign, Webb said it was wrong to elevate the role of one Marine over others. Webb also expressed concern that a high profile could subject a Marine to greater peril.

He wore his son's buff-colored desert boots throughout the campaign, but refused to speak extensively about his son's service or allow it to be used in campaign ads.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press
Frist rules out 2008 presidential bid


POSTED: 2:40 p.m. EST, November 29, 2006

• Sen. Bill Frist says his time as an elected official "has come to a close" • The senator plans to return to his roots as a "healer"• The majority leader did not seek re-election in this month's midterm elections • Frist has been the subject of an insider-trading probe for more than a year

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Wanting to return to his roots as a "healer," Republican Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said Wednesday that he will not seek the presidency in 2008.

"In the Bible, God tells us for everything there is a season, and for me, for now, this season of being an elected official has come to a close," Frist said in a statement.

Frist, a renowned heart surgeon, said he and his wife, Karyn, were taking "a sabbatical from public life." "At this point, a return to private life will allow me to return to my professional roots as a healer and to refocus my creative energies on innovative solutions to seemingly insurmountable challenges Americans face."

A source close to Frist told CNN that he made the decision not to seek the presidency because he wants to "reconnect with his passion" in medicine and new innovations. Frist made the decision over the Thanksgiving holiday when he was home with his family in Tennessee, the source said.
In his statement, Frist said he would resume his medical missions to "serve those in poverty, in famine, and in civil war." He also said he would continue to be involved in public policy issues, particularly efforts to "fix what is broken in our health care system" and the issues of clean water and public health.

Frist had no political experience when he challenged Democratic Sen. Jim Sasser in Tennessee's 1994 Senate campaign. He was swept into office in that year's Republican landslide. Frist became majority leader four years ago after Sen. Trent Lott, R-Mississippi, was forced to step down after making comments that some viewed as racially insensitive during at a 100th birthday celebration for Sen. Strom Thurmond, R-South Carolina.
Since then, Frist has been viewed as a consistent advocate for the Bush administration's agenda in the Senate. However, that "put him at cross purposes at times with his personal inclination" on various issues, a Republican strategist familiar with Frist's thinking told CNN.
"Taking a sabbatical gives him a chance to reconnect with his roots and bring ideas to the fore" that he really cares about, the strategist said.
In a CNN poll conducted in September, Frist was preferred by only 4 percent of registered Republicans who said they favored him to be the party's nominee in 2008. He was 28 percentage points behind the leading candidate, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. But the Republican strategist said the fact that Frist was not the obvious frontrunner did not play into his decision.

Rather, the strategist said, Frist's decision was made because "he wants to go home, reconnect with being a doctor and reassess what he accomplished" during his time in Washington. The strategist disputed the idea that Frist moved certain pieces of legislation to the Senate floor because he was considering a run for president. "To say Frist put 'X' on the floor because he was running for president is wrong. You tell me that Trent Lott or [GOP Senate Whip] Mitch McConnell wouldn't have done the same thing -- that they would've said 'no' to cutting taxes or 'no' to putting flag burning" on the floor, the strategist said. "Frist serves 54 other Republican colleagues."

Frist did not seek a third term in this month's midterm elections.
In 2005, it was reported that the Securities and Exchange Commission had opened an investigation into the sale of HCA stock by the senator. HCA is the giant hospital company founded by Frist's father and brother.
Frist has not been charged with anything related to the sale.

After Democrats trounced the GOP to recapture both houses of Congress, Republicans chose current Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell of Kentucky to replace Frist as the party's leader in the Senate.
"Rare is the person who, acknowledged to be the very best in his field, risks leaving it all behind to tackle an entirely new career. But Bill has now done that twice," McConnell said in a statement after Frist announced his decision. "He has already risen to the very top of two difficult professions, and I know that he will similarly excel in whatever field he chooses in the future."

On Thursday, Frist will lead a Senate delegation to Mexico for the inauguration of that country's President-elect Felipe Calderon.
CNN's Andrea Koppel, Ed Henry and Mark Preston contributed to this report.

Favorite of religious right moves toward White House bid

POSTED: 12:32 p.m. EST, December 4, 2006

Sen. Sam Brownback takes first steps toward run for '08 GOP White House bid• Kansas senator says there is need "to rebuild the family and renew our culture"• Brownback enjoys support from Christian conservatives• Brownback is a forceful opponent of abortion rights, stem cell research

KANSAS CITY, Missouri (AP) -- Republican Sen. Sam Brownback, a favorite of the religious right, said Monday he is taking the first step toward launching a bid for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination.
A vigorous abortion opponent, the Kansas senator pledged to make "issues of life," fiscal restraint and tax reform key components of his effort to woo supporters.

"I have decided, after much prayerful consideration, to consider a bid for the Republican nomination for the presidency," Brownback said in a statement. "There is a real need in our country to rebuild the family and renew our culture and there is a need for genuine conservatism and real compassion in the national discussion."

Brownback said he has formed a presidential exploratory committee, which will allow him to travel the country and raise money while gauging support for the GOP nomination. He also announced 20 members of his exploratory advisory committee, an eclectic mix ranging from anti-abortion activists to business executives, including: Domino's Pizza founder Tom Monaghan, former Major League Baseball commissioner Bowie Kuhn, and the Rev. Frank Pavone, head of the advocacy group Priests for Life.
Brownback has openly weighed a presidential bid for nearly two years, but has struggled to build a national profile despite more than a dozen trips to Iowa and other states with early nomination contests.

Still, he could influence members of the GOP's powerful conservative Christian wing skeptical of better-known, more moderate Republicans like Senator John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who also have established exploratory committees.
Nevertheless, Brownback's bid is considered a long shot in what is shaping up to be a nomination race led by better-known candidates.
The number of possible candidates with a claim to the GOP's social conservative wing has shrunk in recent weeks with the defeat of Sen. George Allen of Virginia in the midterm election and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's decision to forego a run for president.

Brownback said he plans to visit 10 states over the next month, starting in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on Tuesday. Brownback's chief of staff, Rob Wasinger, will take over the exploratory committee and the senator will begin building his organization and staff immediately, spokesman Brian Hart said. Plans call for Brownback to open his main offices in the Kansas City, Kansas, area.

Despite his strong appeal among Protestant evangelicals and his Methodist roots, Brownback converted to Roman Catholicism in 2002 with the support of Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pennsylvania, another prominent social conservative. He says his faith guides his opposition to abortion, gay marriage and embryonic stem cell research.

Brownback's faith also leads him to tackle social injustice around the world. He's spearheaded legislation to fight genocide in Sudan, cut down human slave trafficking and prison recidivism. Last week, he took an AIDS test with a potential White House rival on the Democratic side -- Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois -- to encourage others to be tested.
Brownback grew up on a farm near tiny Parker, Kansas, where his parents still live. After receiving his law degree from the University of Kansas in 1982, he practiced law in Manhattan, Kan., and served as state agriculture secretary.

He was elected to the U.S. House in 1994 with the wave of Republicans who took control of both the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years. Two years later, he won a special election to succeed Bob Dole in the Senate after Dole left the seat to run for president. Brownback, who promised to serve no more than two terms, has said he will not seek re-election in 2010.

Apart from McCain and Giuliani, other potential GOP contenders for the White House include Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, Gov. George Pataki of New York, Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Rep. Duncan Hunter of California and former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press
Iowa governor announces long-shot White House bid

POSTED: 3:13 p.m. EST, November 30, 2006

Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack formally announces presidential bid• The governor says the U.S. must "eliminate our addiction to foreign oil"• Vilsack is considered a centrist, will travel to News Hampshire, South Carolina• Vilsack far behind Sens. Hillary Clinton, Barak Obama in opinion polls.

MOUNT PLEASANT, Iowa (AP) -- Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack announced his candidacy for the Democratic presidential nomination Thursday, positioning himself as a Washington outsider with heartland appeal.
Vilsack also emphasized the nexus between oil dependence, national security and the economy, saying he would give high priority to weaning the nation off foreign oil and promoting alternative energy.

"Energy security will revitalize rural America," Vilsack told more than 500 cheering backers in the small town where be began his political career as mayor. "Energy security will allow us once and for all to remove and reduce our dependency on foreign oil from foreign countries that do not like us."
Taking aim at President Bush, Vilsack said: "We have in the White House a president whose first impulse is to divide and to conquer, who preys on our insecurities and fears for partisan gain ... "

Instead, Vilsack, the first Democrat to formally enter the race, vowed to have "the courage to create change" and resist the "endless partisan debates." In an era when voter unhappiness with corruption and partisan wrangling in Washington is especially high, political analysts said Vilsack is particularly well-positioned as a Midwestern governor to run for the White House as an outsider. (Watch why Gov. Vilsack believes he is the right man to be the next president )

Nevertheless, Vilsack has a low profile outside Iowa and even he acknowledges his candidacy is a long shot.

Vilsack, who is finishing his second term, headed out quickly after his announcement for events in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and other states holding early tests of strength in the nomination contest.
During his tenure as governor, Vilsack has pushed for developing alternative energy sources such as ethanol, biodiesel and wind power.
"In the past eight years, I have helped lead our state, Iowa, to successfully changing by making our farm fields into energy fields," said Vilsack. "We became the renewable fuel leader and producer in the country. It helped us to become more economically, environmentally and energy secure."
Running from the center.

As governor, Vilsack, 55, has carved out a reputation as a political centrist. He balanced Iowa's budget and resisted raising taxes, but was willing to spend money on such priorities as education and health. Ticking off some of his accomplishments, Vilsack said the state has the best air quality in the nation, the lowest dropout rate and the second best record for health insurance coverage. He argued that pushing alternative energy sources is key to bolstering rural sections of the nation that are struggling economically and with vanishing populations.

"As a state we became more economically, environmentally and energy secure," Vilsack said. "If you drive around Iowa today, you will see a changing landscape marked by new ethanol and biofuel production plants and wind farms." Promoting alternative energy sources is an issue with broad public appeal. It also has special appeal in some key early voting states, such as Nevada, with its abundant sunshine and geothermal resources.

A national poll last February by the Pew Research Center for People and the Press found overwhelming bipartisan support for promoting alternative energy, including 82 percent in favor of increased federal funding for alternative energy research.

A orphan from a troubled home

Vilsack signaled a key element of his campaign will be his compelling personal story. Born in Pittsburgh, Vilsack was adopted and speaks often of his adoptive mother's struggle with alcoholism and his adoptive father's financial struggles.

"I began life in an orphanage in the hands of a stranger. I was adopted into a loving but troubled home," Vilsack said. "I know what it is like to feel alone and to feel as if you do not belong."

While Vilsack remains popular with Iowa Democrats, he doesn't start off as the favorite to win the state's leadoff caucuses. Other potential Democratic candidates are already at work in the state.

Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards was in Iowa Wednesday, and Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh is scheduled to visit next week. Other potential contenders include Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson. Among Republicans, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani are the most prominent.

Another hurdle for Vilsack is fundraising. Coming from a small population state and without a national money niche to call his own, it remains to be seen whether Vilsack can raise the $20 million political experts estimate he needs to have in hand by June. Vilsack dismissed those shortcomings.
"I have always been the underdog and long shot," said Vilsack. "And I have always been inspired by stories of ordinary people who struggled, but ultimately succeeded."

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All
Officials: Bayh to take first step in 2008 bid next week

POSTED: 5:57 p.m. EST, December 1, 2006
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, a Democrat with a record of political success in a Republican-leaning state, intends to take the first official step toward a 2008 presidential campaign early next week, officials said Friday. Bayh's plans include creation of a presidential exploratory committee, as well as appearances Monday in Iowa and next weekend in New Hampshire, two early states on the campaign calendar.

Bayh would be the second Democrat to take a formal step toward a presidential campaign. Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack is already in the race. Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois are among numerous other potential rivals who are expected to decide within a few weeks whether to run.

Republicans also are likely to have a crowded field of contenders. So far, only Sen. John McCain of Arizona and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani have created exploratory committees, which permit fundraising to finance a candidate's travels.

The officials who described Bayh's plans did so on condition of anonymity, saying they had not been authorized to discuss them.
As a member of the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services committees, Bayh was one of the first Democrats to support military action in Iraq. But in December 2005, he changed his position, saying he would not have supported legislation authorizing the invasion if the facts the Bush administration used to support the move had been presented to him accurately.

Bayh, 50, has charted a centrist's course throughout his political career, including two terms as governor and eight years in the Senate. He also has served as chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council, which is a prominent voice for moderation within the party, and has helped establish the centrist New Democrat Coalition. Elected governor in 1988, he was the first Democrat in 20 years to hold that office and -- at 33 -- the youngest state chief executive in the United States.

Bayh was often referred to as a "Republicrat" who courted the middle. He never raised taxes and he left office with a humming state economy, low unemployment and a record budget surplus.

His approval rating was an astonishing 79 percent in a state that hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. He drew national notice, too, as his tenure neared an end. Bayh was tapped to give the keynote address at the 1996 Democratic National Convention. He was elected to the Senate two years later.

In recent years, Bayh voted against confirmation of Chief Justice John Roberts as well as Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito; opposed legislation to open a portion of an Arctic wildlife refuge to oil drilling; supported a comprehensive immigration bill that included a path to citizenship for millions of men and women in the country illegally. Bayh is the son of Birch Bayh, who won three terms in the Senate from Indiana before losing his seat in the Republican landslide of 1980.

Copyright 2006 The Associated Press

Rumsfeld memo called for new Iraq strategy
Days before resigning, the secretary urged new strategies, including troop reductions.
By Josh Meyer, Times Staff WriterDecember 3, 2006

WASHINGTON — Two days before he resigned as secretary of Defense, Donald H. Rumsfeld sent a rambling memo to the White House in which he acknowledged that the current U.S. strategy in Iraq was not working and offered several diverging scenarios for reversing course.In the classified, three-page document, Rumsfeld offered several options for reducing troop presence in Iraq, including some that were similar to proposals by Democratic critics of the war in Iraq and that have been sharply opposed by the Bush administration.

And he suggested one potentially controversial plan of action that had been used in a different form by deposed dictator Saddam Hussein — paying off "key political and religious leaders" so they would be more compliant with U.S. occupying forces in the war-torn country and its capital, Baghdad."In my view it is time for a major adjustment," Rumsfeld wrote in the Nov. 6 memo. "Clearly, what U.S. forces are currently doing in Iraq is not working well enough or fast enough."

Until his resignation, Rumsfeld frequently had said that the overall course of action in Iraq was working, even if it needed adjustments. And while he has said he bases his decisions on input from commanders, his memo is peppered with proposals that run counter to the advice of officers, most of whom have opposed redeployments or withdrawals.

Critics immediately seized on the memo as an admission of failure by one of the administration's primary architects of the Iraq war and its aftermath."This is an unbelievable memo. It is an admission of failure. It is more frank than anything that any [administration] official has said publicly in the three years of the war," said Joseph Cirincione, senior vice president for national security at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank.In the memo, first reported Saturday by the New York Times on its website and titled "Illustrative New Courses of Action,"

Rumsfeld describes a "range of options" for the White House to consider. Many of them involve sharply drawing down U.S. troop presence in Iraq by mid-2007."Recast the U.S. military mission and the U.S. goals (how we talk about them) — go minimalist," Rumsfeld suggested. For instance, he proposed an accelerated shuttering or consolidation of most U.S. military bases in Iraq."We have already reduced from 110 to 55 bases," he wrote. "Plan to get down to 10 to 15 bases by April 2007, and to 5 bases by July 2007."Another option: withdrawing U.S. forces from vulnerable positions, such as cities and patrols, and moving them to a "Quick Reaction Force" status, in which they would operate from within Iraq and neighboring Kuwait.Rumsfeld also proposed keeping high-end special operations forces in Iraq to target Al Qaeda, death squads and Iranians, but "drawing down all other Coalition forces," except for key U.S. advisors.He suggested a new approach in which U.S. forces would only provide security for those provinces or cities that openly request it — "and that actively cooperate, with the stipulation being that unless they cooperate fully, U.S. forces would leave their province."In areas where there is continued violence,

Rumsfeld proposed that U.S. forces stop helping Iraqis, particularly with reconstruction efforts."As the old saying goes, 'If you want more of something, reward it; if you want less of something, penalize it,' " he wrote.All told, such drawdown efforts would send a strong signal to Iraqis, Rumsfeld said. He described it as " 'taking our hand off the bicycle seat,' so Iraqis know they have to pull up their socks, step up and take responsibility for their country."Eric Ruff, the senior Pentagon spokesman, said the formulation of the memo evolved over a period of several weeks."There had been a lot of discussion over a period of several weeks; people were discussing different options and various approaches, and the secretary had some views on the matter, and the memo reflects those views," Ruff said.The White House said President Bush was reviewing Rumsfeld's proposals, along with many others. "The president has said he's been dissatisfied with the progress in Iraq. So the right thing to do is reevaluate our tactics," said spokeswoman Eryn Witcher.The memo was sent one day after Bush had interviewed Rumsfeld's appointed successor, Robert M. Gates, the former CIA director and president of Texas A&M University. But Pentagon and White House officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they believed that the timing was coincidental, and that the memo had nothing to do with Rumsfeld's impending departure or any efforts on his behalf to keep his job.In the memo, Rumsfeld offered alternatives to troop reductions. He proposed stepping up the public relations campaign in Iraq by announcing a set of benchmarks that would reassure the U.S. public and give the appearance "that progress can and is being made."Even so, Rumsfeld cautioned that the administration should take steps to lower expectations and keep its options open."Announce that whatever new approach the U.S. decides on, the U.S. is doing so on a trial basis," he wrote. "This will give us the ability to readjust and move to another course, if necessary, and therefore not 'lose.'

"Lawrence Di Rita, Rumsfeld's press secretary from 2001 until May, said the memo shows how his former boss operates."He is always throwing things out there for people to consider. That is what good leaders do," Di Rita said. "This is his way of recognizing that our policy is in need of adapting to the realities" in Iraq.A senior administration official said the memo should not be seen as Rumsfeld abdicating his long-held beliefs about the administration's strategy in Iraq. Instead, it shows how the defense secretary was trying to present the White House with all available options to consider when deciding how to go forward with the war in Iraq, he said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the memo had not been formally made public."This is vintage Rumsfeld," the senior administration official said.

josh.meyer@latimes.com*(INFOBOX BELOW)EXCERPTS FROM RUMSFELD MEMO`It is time for a major adjustment'The situation in Iraq has been evolving, and U.S. forces have adjusted, over time, from major combat operations to counterterrorism, to counterinsurgency, to dealing with death squads and sectarian violence. In my view it is time for a major adjustment. Clearly, what U.S. forces are currently doing in Iraq is not working well enough or fast enough.

Following is a range of options:Illustrative optionsAbove the Line (many of these options could and, in a number of cases, should be done in combination with others):• Publicly announce a set of benchmarks agreed to by the Iraqi government and the U.S. — political, economic and security goals — to chart a path ahead for the Iraqi government and Iraqi people (to get them moving) and for the U.S. public (to reassure them that progress can and is being made).• Significantly increase U.S. trainers and embeds, and transfer more U.S. equipment to Iraqi security forces (ISF), to further accelerate their capabilities by refocusing the assignment of some significant portion of the U.S. troops currently in Iraq.• Conduct an accelerated draw-down of U.S. bases.• Initiate an approach where U.S. forces provide security only for those provinces or cities that openly request U.S. help and that actively cooperate, with the stipulation being that unless they cooperate fully, U.S. forces would leave their province.• Stop rewarding bad behavior, as was done in Fallouja when they pushed in reconstruction funds, and start rewarding good behavior. Put our reconstruction efforts in those parts of Iraq that are behaving, and invest and create havens of opportunity to reward them for their good behavior. As the old saying goes, "If you want more of something, reward it; if you want less of something, penalize it." No more reconstruction assistance in areas where there is violence.• Withdraw U.S. forces from vulnerable positions — cities, patrolling, etc. — and move U.S. forces to a Quick Reaction Force (QRF) status, operating from within Iraq and Kuwait, to be available when Iraqi security forces need assistance.• Begin modest withdrawals of U.S. and coalition forces (start "taking our hand off the bicycle seat"), so Iraqis know they have to pull up their socks, step up and take responsibility for their country.• Provide money to key political and religious leaders (as Saddam Hussein did), to get them to help us get through this difficult period.Below the Line (less attractive options):• Continue on the current path.• Move a large fraction of all U.S. forces into Baghdad to attempt to control it.• Increase Brigade Combat Teams and U.S. forces in Iraq substantially.• Set a firm withdrawal date to leave. Declare that with Saddam gone and Iraq a sovereign nation, the Iraqi people can govern themselves. Tell Iran and Syria to stay out.• Assist in accelerating an aggressive federalism plan, moving toward three separate states — Sunni, Shia, and Kurd.

Controversy over Pentagon's war-spending plan

The emergency request of at least $127 billion is criticized as a wish list. The military cites a big need to buy equipment.
By Julian E. Barnes and Peter Spiegel, Times Staff WritersNovember 29, 2006

Iraqi premier wants more control over his military
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is preparing an emergency spending proposal that could be larger and broader than any since the Sept. 11 attacks, covering not only the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan but extending to other military operations connected to the Bush administration's war on terrorism.The spending plans may push the Defense Department into conflict with Democrats as they take control of Capitol Hill in January. Democrats had been planning to limit the emergency "supplemental" spending measures that have funded the wars in favor of the regular federal budget process, which affords greater oversight and congressional control.

FOR THE RECORD:War funding: An article in Wednesday's Section A about the Pentagon's war funding request misspelled the last name of Air Force Chief of Staff T. Michael Moseley as Mosley.

Congressional and military officials have said the Pentagon is considering a request of $127 billion to $150 billion in new emergency war spending, the largest such request since the special spending measures were begun in 2001. So far, Congress has allocated $495 billion for Afghanistan, Iraq and terrorism-related efforts.Even within the Pentagon, the spending request is generating controversy. The Pentagon was due to forward its request to the White House by about Nov. 15. But a senior Defense Department official said that the decision has been delayed and that Pentagon officials have asked Army and Air Force officials to provide more justification for their spending demands.The services have been pushing to increase the size of the supplemental appropriation in order to replace equipment, and they have argued that the overall military budget is too small given the demands on the armed forces.Pentagon officials would not comment on the budget figures, which are due to be made public in February.The upcoming request, added to the $70 billion already allocated for next year, would easily exceed the annual cost of the Vietnam War at its height. Adjusted for inflation, the U.S. spent $121 billion on the Vietnam War in 1968, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.Still, the overall cost of the Vietnam War — about $663 billion adjusted for inflation — is still larger than the combined costs of the fighting thus far in Afghanistan and Iraq, according to the research service.The next request stands to be larger partly because of new rules laid out in an Oct. 25 memo from Deputy Defense Secretary Gordon R. England. Rather than strictly limiting spending to Iraq and Afghanistan costs, the memo said the military services could include costs associated with operations that are part of the larger war on terrorism.Previously, the military portion of the supplemental spending measures has been used almost exclusively for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. England's memo would allow the military to include a greater number of expenses more loosely tied to the actual wars, such as new military weapons systems and training exercises.Critics of the Pentagon budget process say the memo has encouraged the services to inflate their requests."The England memo basically said, 'Let her rip,' " said Winslow Wheeler, director of the Straus Military Reform Project and a former congressional budget aide. "Anything goes, as long as you can put it under the pretext of not only Iraq or Afghanistan but the global war on terror."The cost and approach of the spending request both are likely to meet with resistance in Congress. Democratic congressional aides said the new majority on Capitol Hill probably will push back against a request higher than $100 billion."This was a dream list for the military," said one aide, who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity because the Pentagon has not formalized its request and because some members of Congress believe it is premature to comment publicly.Democrats said a supplemental of $80 billion to $100 billion was more realistic. Both House and Senate aides say they want to push in the opposite direction of the Pentagon, moving money out of the supplemental and into the regular budget."We are going to show more oversight," said another Democratic aide.But Democrats acknowledged that it would be difficult to move most of the costs to the regular budget without forcing massive cuts elsewhere.Though there will be more scrutiny of the Pentagon requests, and the more elaborate spending proposals could be nixed, there is little doubt a large supplemental will be approved, some Democratic aides said."People will grouse that they are loading up the supplemental, but they will be hard-pressed to say no because they realize the services need the equipment," said the Democratic aide.According to the England memo, the Pentagon wants to include money in the supplemental to replace equipment destroyed in combat or run down by accelerated wear and tear. More controversially, it also allows the services to replace old equipment with new models — actions historically subject to the normal budget review process.Defense Department officials declined to lay out specifics about what expenditures would be allowed in the next supplemental spending bill.A Department official said a $30-billion request from the Navy and Marine Corps has been viewed as relatively uncontroversial. But the Army and Air Force requested far more than the Pentagon was willing to take to the White House's Office of Management and Budget, and were asked to provide more information to top Defense Department officials.The Army, outside military analysts have said, has requested about $80 billion in the upcoming supplemental, although Army officials have not confirmed the figure.The Air Force has requested about $33 billion in supplemental funding, said Maj. Morshe Araujo, a spokeswoman. The Air Force initially requested $17.4 billion, but after the England memo was circulated the Air Force added $16 billion more in requests, Araujo said.Loren Thompson, a military analyst at the nonpartisan Lexington Institute in Arlington, Va., said the timing of the memo suggested that Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, who has resigned and is likely to be out by the end of the year, was passing on tough spending choices."It really does have the feeling of opening up the floodgates and letting someone else drown,"

Thompson said.Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said the supplemental amounts being publicly discussed were "wildly speculative." The England memo, he said, was meant to enable the services to request money to replace worn-out equipment."It is fair to say you are five years into this conflict and equipment is being used at a higher rate than its peacetime service life would be," Whitman said. "Those are costs directly related to the war, and we are going to have to figure out how we are going to deal with it."But Wheeler said the services were doing more than just replacing equipment destroyed in Iraq or Afghanistan. He was particularly critical of the Marine Corps' decision to use the emergency spending requests to replace old helicopters with the new V-22 Osprey, a controversial and expensive tilt rotor airplane that has yet to be deployed in Iraq or Afghanistan."That is like telling your wife she has worn out the Yugo for getting to the train station and you are going to buy her a Ferrari," Wheeler said.But in a meeting with reporters last week, Gen. James T. Conway, the new Marine Corps commandant, said that buying outdated equipment would be wasteful."What we have to do is be smart about it," Conway said. "We have to be good custodians of the nation's resources. We have to ask ourselves: Do we buy new old stuff or do we go to the next generation of equipment and modernize in the process?"

The England memo allows services to include in the emergency funding request the costs of increasing "force capability." That could include costs associated with increasing the size of the Marine Corps. And Conway said the Marines may request money to expand its force in the supplemental appropriation.Earlier this year, Army Chief of Staff Peter J. Schoomaker asked that Rumsfeld increase the annual Army budget to $138.8 billion, nearly $25 billion higher than limits set by the Defense Department. Current budgets must increase because the military is being asked to do more around the world, and to stay longer, the service chiefs have argued."[Chief of Naval Operations] Mike Mullen has got the smallest Navy he's had since before World War II. Gen. Schoomaker is looking at refitting and resetting an Army that's engaged mightily," Air Force Chief of Staff T. Michael Mosley said last month. "The [Air Force] secretary and I are looking at recapitalizing an Air Force that's got the oldest inventory in the history of the Air Force while we're engaged in a global war."Mosley said he thinks Congress should debate whether it needs to spend more money on defense."I believe there should be a debate," he said. "And there should be a set of questions asked about what are the opportunities for an increase in the top line, and how would that be spent."

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